Last week, we hosted in association with Marval O’Farrell Mairal and Valo Columbus Investment Banking a webinar analyzing Argentina’s Régimen de Incentivo para Grandes Inversiones (“RIGI”), a regulatory framework designed to encourage large-scale foreign investment. The discussion brought together industry leaders, investment professionals, and legal experts to assess Argentina’s evolving investment landscape, the economic and political outlook, and the practical considerations investors should keep in mind when evaluating opportunities under RIGI. Below are the key takeaways from the session.
Argentina’s Evolving Economic Landscape
Argentina has undergone a notable shift in its economic trajectory. Inflation, which once posed a significant challenge, has slowed considerably, and the fiscal deficit has been dramatically reduced. The foreign exchange gap has also narrowed, reflecting increased stability in currency markets. These improvements have strengthened investor confidence, as seen in the tightening of country risk and renewed bondholder interest in Argentine sovereign debt. However, real economy investors remain cautious, awaiting further regulatory clarity and foreign exchange liberalization before committing long-term capital.
Politically, the Milei administration has advanced key economic reforms despite holding a minority position in Congress. The upcoming October 2025 midterm elections will be pivotal in determining whether the government can secure broader legislative support, which will be critical for sustaining its reform agenda.
RIGI as a Tool for Investment
RIGI is a cornerstone of Argentina’s strategy to attract foreign capital, offering long-term regulatory and tax stability. The framework includes reduced corporate tax rates, VAT credits, exemptions on import and export duties, and a phased approach to foreign exchange liberalization. A key feature is its 30-year guarantee on tax, customs, and foreign exchange regulations, designed to provide certainty in a historically volatile investment climate.
While RIGI presents significant opportunities, concerns remain over the efficiency of project approvals and the full implementation of foreign exchange policy changes. Investors are closely monitoring how these aspects develop before committing large-scale capital.
Sector-Specific Investment Trends
The energy and infrastructure sectors have emerged as primary beneficiaries of RIGI, with growing demand for project financing in renewables, oil and gas, and mining, in large part because of the sectors’ potential to generate US Dollar revenue. The Vaca Muerta shale reserves and Argentina’s copper and lithium deposits continue to attract international interest, particularly among those seeking long-term infrastructure partnerships.
Within financial markets, local financing options remain both an opportunity and a challenge. Institutional lenders have been cautious, watching Argentina’s reform trajectory closely. Mergers and acquisitions (“M&A”) activity has been shaped more by corporate-level strategic decisions than by direct reactions to Milei’s policies. While multinational subsidiaries have increasingly been acquired by local buyers, this trend primarily reflects broader regional strategies set at the headquarters level rather than a shift caused by Argentina’s current administration. Many of these decisions were made under the previous administration, shaped by the policies and economic conditions in place before Milei took office.
Although critics of RIGI claim the lack of domestic content and local labor requirements make the regime unnecessarily beneficial to foreign investors at the expense of development of the local economy, supporters claim Argentina desperately needs to start somewhere.
Investment Risks and Considerations
Despite positive developments, investors remain cautious about Argentina’s foreign exchange risks and political stability. The gap between official and parallel exchange rates, though reduced, continues to be a concern. While foreign exchange controls have been gradually eased, uncertainty around the pace of further liberalization continues to influence investor sentiment.
Critics of RIGI have expressed concerns about the sustainability of reforms across administrations if Milei does not win re-elections. However, it has been said that from the standpoint of Argentine law, and considering Argentine Supreme Court case law on vested rights under “bilateral” promotion regimes, it is important to note that the RIGI is specifically structured to safeguard approved projects against future legislative or regulatory measures that may seek to disregard or undermine the rights and benefits granted under its framework.
The midterm elections in 2025 will be a key inflection point, shaping the administration’s ability to continue its reform agenda. Investors are also weighing the effectiveness of RIGI’s arbitration framework in comparison to bilateral investment treaties (“BITs”), which have traditionally provided strong legal protections for foreign investors.
Investor Protections: Structure and Arbitration
Argentina has entered into over 50 BITs that remain critical for foreign investor protection, regardless of the new RIGI regime. These BITs provide foundational guarantees such as protection against expropriation without compensation, fair and equitable treatment, free transfer of capital and returns, and most importantly, access to international arbitration (typically before ICSID or under UNCITRAL Rules), allowing investors to bypass potentially biased local courts. To benefit from these protections, investors must ensure their structure qualifies under a BIT and consider restructuring if necessary—commonly done by routing the investment through an SPV incorporated in a treaty-protected jurisdiction. However, not all BITs offer equal protection, so careful planning is essential, especially to avoid restrictive clauses such as local litigation requirements or denial of benefits provisions.
The RIGI regime also offers a parallel arbitration path, a commercial arbitration framework with certain advantages (non-Argentine seats, neutral arbitrators, and broad coverage of project-related disputes). However, investors should closely monitor the effectiveness of this arbitration mechanism, as its application in practice remains to be fully tested. RIGI arbitration may be appropriate for lower-threshold disputes or where BIT protection is unavailable, but it does not replace the security and tested mechanisms offered by BITs. Investors should view RIGI as a supplement—not a substitute—to robust treaty planning.
Outlook for Investors
Argentina’s investment climate is improving, though many investors remain in watch-and-wait mode as they assess political and regulatory developments. The country is unlikely to return to populist policies, but further progress in foreign exchange liberalization and institutional reforms will be necessary to unlock sustained foreign investment. The coming months will be critical in determining whether Argentina can solidify its position as an attractive long-term destination for capital.
Speakers and Contact Information
The webinar featured insights from Dr. Carsten Wendler, Julio Fermo, Gonzalo Santamaría, Melissa Raciti-Knapp, and Noiana Marigo, who provided expert perspectives on Argentina’s economic trajectory and legal considerations for investors. For further discussions, please contact our team. We look forward to continuing the conversation on investment opportunities in Argentina.
